Prelims1
Lightweight
Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Eddie Alvarez
Dustin Poirier
50%
50%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
29-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
31-10
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 2
Alvarez: 44 sig / 1 TD ·
Poirier: 73 sig / 0 TD
Eddie Alvarez
Dustin Poirier
35
Sig strikes landed
44
86
Sig strikes attempted
100
52
Total strikes landed
61
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
149s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Eddie Alvarez
29-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
Blue corner
W1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
17 fights · 13-4
Last 5
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—