Prelims1
Featherweight
Chas Skelly vs Jason Knight
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Chas Skelly
Jason Knight
50%
50%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
20-3
Career record
Δ 6 pp
21-5
W2
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Skelly: 29 sig / 1 TD ·
Knight: 59 sig / 2 TD
Chas Skelly
Jason Knight
29
Sig strikes landed
30
78
Sig strikes attempted
89
45
Total strikes landed
56
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
187s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Chas Skelly
"The Scrapper"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
Blue corner
W3
Jason Knight
"The Kid"
21-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—