Prelims1
Lightweight
James Vick vs Marco Polo Reyes
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
James Vick
Marco Polo Reyes
71%
29%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
14-5
Career record
Δ 17 pp
9-7
W1
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Vick: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Reyes: 16 sig / 0 TD
James Vick
Marco Polo Reyes
53
Sig strikes landed
39
131
Sig strikes attempted
108
58
Total strikes landed
45
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
78s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
James Vick
"The Texecutioner"
14-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
Blue corner
W3
Marco Polo Reyes
9-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—