Back to UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
Prelims2 Women's Strawweight

Jessica Aguilar vs Cortney Casey

UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos ·American Airlines Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jessica Aguilar
Cortney Casey
73% 27%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
20-9
Career record
Δ 21 pp
10-11
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aguilar: 57 sig / 4 TD · Casey: 103 sig / 0 TD
Jessica Aguilar
Cortney Casey
53
Sig strikes landed
69
134
Sig strikes attempted
167
81
Total strikes landed
76
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
182s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
43%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jessica Aguilar

"Jag"
20-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
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Blue corner
L1

Cortney Casey

"Cast Iron"
10-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
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W UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
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W UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
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