Main
Welterweight
Demian Maia vs Jorge Masvidal
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Jorge Masvidal
45%
55%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
40
Age
Δ 7y
32
29-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
36-17
W6
Current streak
W3
18
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Maia: 23 sig / 4 TD ·
Masvidal: 39 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Jorge Masvidal
36
Sig strikes landed
49
79
Sig strikes attempted
92
60
Total strikes landed
57
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
9.9
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
-0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
297s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
18 fights · 13-5
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
Blue corner
W3
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—