Main
Women's Strawweight
Cynthia Calvillo vs Pearl Gonzalez
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
·KeyBank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cynthia Calvillo
Pearl Gonzalez
59%
41%
Why
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Calvillo: 50 sig / 1 TD ·
Gonzalez: 37 sig / 2 TD
Cynthia Calvillo
Pearl Gonzalez
24
Sig strikes landed
20
65
Sig strikes attempted
48
43
Total strikes landed
42
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
178s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
42%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cynthia Calvillo
10-6-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
Blue corner
Pearl Gonzalez
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31