Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Thiago Alves
Patrick Cote
52%
48%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
34
Age
Δ 4y
37
23-16
Career record
Δ 7 pp
23-12
L2
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alves: 79 sig / 1 TD ·
Cote: 44 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Alves
Patrick Cote
49
Sig strikes landed
45
110
Sig strikes attempted
111
66
Total strikes landed
58
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
91s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
L1
Patrick Cote
"The Predator"
23-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—