Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Weidman
Gegard Mousasi
8%
92%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
16-9
Career record
Δ 20 pp
43-6-2
L2
Current streak
W4
11
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Weidman: 13 sig / 4 TD ·
Mousasi: 49 sig / 0 TD
Chris Weidman
Gegard Mousasi
30
Sig strikes landed
46
75
Sig strikes attempted
93
35
Total strikes landed
57
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
139s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
16-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
Blue corner
W4
Gegard Mousasi
43-6-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—