Prelims2
Lightweight
Gregor Gillespie vs Andrew Holbrook
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
·KeyBank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gregor Gillespie
Andrew Holbrook
76%
24%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
15-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
13-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gillespie: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Holbrook: 4 sig / 0 TD
Gregor Gillespie
Andrew Holbrook
15
Sig strikes landed
21
35
Sig strikes attempted
36
49
Total strikes landed
39
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.0
6.1
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
315s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gregor Gillespie
"The Gift"
15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
Blue corner
W1
Andrew Holbrook
13-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—