Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Josh Emmett
Desmond Green
39%
61%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
32
Age
Δ 5y
28
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Emmett: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Green: 57 sig / 1 TD
Josh Emmett
Desmond Green
42
Sig strikes landed
47
94
Sig strikes attempted
125
63
Total strikes landed
62
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
122s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Josh Emmett
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
Blue corner
Desmond Green
"The Predator"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28