Back to UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Patrick Cummins vs Jan Blachowicz

UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 ·KeyBank Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Patrick Cummins
Jan Blachowicz
22% 78%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
10-8
Career record
Δ 12 pp
29-12-2
L2
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cummins: 73 sig / 3 TD · Blachowicz: 53 sig / 1 TD
Patrick Cummins
Jan Blachowicz
33
Sig strikes landed
42
80
Sig strikes attempted
87
56
Total strikes landed
63
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
208s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Patrick Cummins

"Durkin"
10-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
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L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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W UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
Blue corner
L1

Jan Blachowicz

29-12-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
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W UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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L UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—