Prelims2
Women's Bantamweight
Katlyn Cerminara vs Irene Aldana
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
·KeyBank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Katlyn Cerminara
Irene Aldana
64%
36%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
18-7
Career record
Δ 9 pp
15-9
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Cerminara: 105 sig / 0 TD ·
Aldana: 84 sig / 0 TD
Katlyn Cerminara
Irene Aldana
88
Sig strikes landed
51
194
Sig strikes attempted
137
106
Total strikes landed
104
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.6
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
72s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Katlyn Cerminara
"Blonde Fighter"
18-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
Blue corner
L1
Irene Aldana
15-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—