Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Will Brooks
Charles Oliveira
26%
74%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
30
Age
Δ 3y
28
18-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
37-12
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Brooks: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 3 sig / 2 TD
Will Brooks
Charles Oliveira
35
Sig strikes landed
29
65
Sig strikes attempted
62
58
Total strikes landed
46
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
179s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
48%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Will Brooks
"Ill"
18-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
Blue corner
L2
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
17 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—