Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shane Burgos
Charles Rosa
78%
22%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
69"
26
Age
Δ 4y
31
16-3
Career record
Δ 19 pp
15-8
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Burgos: 77 sig / 0 TD ·
Rosa: 86 sig / 1 TD
Shane Burgos
Charles Rosa
67
Sig strikes landed
55
156
Sig strikes attempted
149
74
Total strikes landed
63
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.0
Takedowns attempted
7.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
57s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Shane Burgos
"Hurricane"
16-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
Blue corner
W1
Charles Rosa
"Boston Strong"
15-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—