Prelims1
Lightweight
Marc Diakiese vs Teemu Packalen
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marc Diakiese
Teemu Packalen
75%
25%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
24
Age
Δ 6y
30
18-7
Career record
Δ 3 pp
9-3
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Diakiese: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Packalen: 1 sig / 0 TD
Marc Diakiese
Teemu Packalen
22
Sig strikes landed
21
50
Sig strikes attempted
54
45
Total strikes landed
29
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
247s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Marc Diakiese
"Bonecrusher"
18-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
W1
Teemu Packalen
"Pacu"
9-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—