Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Brad Scott
Scott Askham
48%
52%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
11-7
Career record
Δ 13 pp
14-5
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Scott: 72 sig / 0 TD ·
Askham: 86 sig / 1 TD
Brad Scott
Scott Askham
33
Sig strikes landed
34
72
Sig strikes attempted
70
44
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
156s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brad Scott
"Bear"
11-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
L
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
Blue corner
L1
Scott Askham
14-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—