Prelims1
Welterweight
Leon Edwards vs Vicente Luque
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Vicente Luque
63%
37%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
26
Age
Δ 0y
25
23-6
Career record
Δ 14 pp
25-12-1
W2
Current streak
W4
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Edwards: 53 sig / 3 TD ·
Luque: 24 sig / 2 TD
Leon Edwards
Vicente Luque
19
Sig strikes landed
14
45
Sig strikes attempted
39
35
Total strikes landed
27
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
166s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
23-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
Blue corner
W4
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
25-12-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—