Back to UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Rani Yahya vs Joe Soto

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum ·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Rani Yahya
Joe Soto
67% 33%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
29-12-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
19-7
W4
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Yahya: 59 sig / 1 TD · Soto: 54 sig / 1 TD
Rani Yahya
Joe Soto
34
Sig strikes landed
26
81
Sig strikes attempted
69
58
Total strikes landed
41
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
214s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
36%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W4

Rani Yahya

29-12-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 11 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
W UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
W UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
W UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
Blue corner
W2

Joe Soto

"One Bad Mofo"
19-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
L UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
L UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
L UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto