Prelims1
Lightweight
Michel Prazeres vs Joshua Burkman
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michel Prazeres
Joshua Burkman
81%
19%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
36
Age
Δ 1y
37
27-4
Career record
Δ 25 pp
28-17
W3
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Prazeres: 24 sig / 2 TD ·
Burkman: 1 sig / 0 TD
Michel Prazeres
Joshua Burkman
40
Sig strikes landed
31
89
Sig strikes attempted
76
69
Total strikes landed
50
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
7.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
293s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Michel Prazeres
"Tractor"
27-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
Blue corner
L2
Joshua Burkman
"The People's Warrior"
28-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
6 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—