Main
Light Heavyweight
Mauricio Rua vs Gian Villante
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Gian Villante
76%
24%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
35
Age
Δ 4y
32
28-14-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-14
W2
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Rua: 94 sig / 2 TD ·
Villante: 55 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Rua
Gian Villante
63
Sig strikes landed
47
108
Sig strikes attempted
100
67
Total strikes landed
58
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
133s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
W1
Gian Villante
18-14
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—