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Vitor Belfort vs Kelvin Gastelum

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum ·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Vitor Belfort
Kelvin Gastelum
43% 57%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
40
Age
Δ 14y
25
26-15
Career record
Δ 3 pp
22-11
L2
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Overturned · Round 1
Belfort: 10 sig / 0 TD · Gastelum: 26 sig / 0 TD
Vitor Belfort
Kelvin Gastelum
46
Sig strikes landed
46
95
Sig strikes attempted
95
51
Total strikes landed
62
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
39s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Vitor Belfort

"The Phenom"
26-15 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database 11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
L UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
W2

Kelvin Gastelum

22-11 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database 10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—