Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marcin Tybura
Luis Henrique
67%
33%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
31
Age
Δ 8y
24
28-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
11-5
W1
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Tybura: 50 sig / 1 TD ·
Henrique: 14 sig / 3 TD
Marcin Tybura
Luis Henrique
26
Sig strikes landed
26
50
Sig strikes attempted
56
52
Total strikes landed
47
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
120s
Control time
245s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
28-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
Blue corner
W2
Luis Henrique
"KLB"
11-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—