Prelims1
Featherweight
Mirsad Bektic vs Darren Elkins
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Mirsad Bektic
Darren Elkins
52%
48%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
26
Age
Δ 7y
33
14-4
Career record
Δ 6 pp
30-12
W4
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Bektic: 60 sig / 4 TD ·
Elkins: 28 sig / 0 TD
Mirsad Bektic
Darren Elkins
33
Sig strikes landed
32
73
Sig strikes attempted
78
58
Total strikes landed
56
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.5
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
269s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Mirsad Bektic
14-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
W3
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
15 fights · 11-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—