Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Mark Hunt
98%
2%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 8"
72"
37
Age
Δ 6y
43
47-20
Career record
Δ 24 pp
13-14-1
L1
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Overeem: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Hunt: 21 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Mark Hunt
45
Sig strikes landed
16
75
Sig strikes attempted
42
67
Total strikes landed
24
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.80
Knockdowns
0.20
104s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
75%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
47-20
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
W2
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
13-14-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
13 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—