Prelims1
Bantamweight
Iuri Alcantara vs Luke Sanders
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Iuri Alcantara
Luke Sanders
84%
16%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
37
Age
Δ 5y
31
36-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
14-5
W1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Alcantara: 23 sig / 1 TD ·
Sanders: 94 sig / 1 TD
Iuri Alcantara
Luke Sanders
31
Sig strikes landed
30
72
Sig strikes attempted
63
43
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
73s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
36-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
13 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
Blue corner
W1
Luke Sanders
"Cool Hand"
14-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—