Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Sam Sicilia
Gavin Tucker
50%
50%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
L2
Current streak
—
11
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sicilia: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Tucker: 55 sig / 1 TD
Sam Sicilia
Gavin Tucker
26
Sig strikes landed
31
64
Sig strikes attempted
59
40
Total strikes landed
46
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
160s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Sam Sicilia
15-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
Blue corner
Gavin Tucker
"Guv'nor"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31