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Main Middleweight

Johny Hendricks vs Hector Lombard

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne ·Scotiabank Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Johny Hendricks
Hector Lombard
36% 64%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
33
Age
Δ 6y
39
18-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
34-11-1
L3
Current streak
L2
16
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hendricks: 51 sig / 0 TD · Lombard: 37 sig / 2 TD
Johny Hendricks
Hector Lombard
41
Sig strikes landed
41
80
Sig strikes attempted
77
69
Total strikes landed
56
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.1
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
152s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Johny Hendricks

"Bigg Rigg"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
L UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
L UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
Blue corner
L2

Hector Lombard

34-11-1 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database 8 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—