Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paul Felder
Alex Ricci
77%
23%
Why
33
Age
Δ 2y
35
17-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
10-6
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Felder: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Ricci: 21 sig / 0 TD
Paul Felder
Alex Ricci
44
Sig strikes landed
31
92
Sig strikes attempted
75
63
Total strikes landed
46
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
164s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
17-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
Blue corner
L1
Alex Ricci
10-6
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—