Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anderson Silva
Derek Brunson
68%
32%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
42
Age
Δ 9y
33
34-12
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-10
L4
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Silva: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Brunson: 54 sig / 2 TD
Anderson Silva
Derek Brunson
25
Sig strikes landed
26
44
Sig strikes attempted
63
30
Total strikes landed
58
-0.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
-0.1
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
0s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Anderson Silva
"The Spider"
34-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
42
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner
L1
Derek Brunson
"The One"
23-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—