Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Tim Boetsch
76%
24%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
37
Age
Δ 1y
36
27-10
Career record
Δ 10 pp
22-13
W1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Souza: 7 sig / 1 TD ·
Boetsch: 6 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Tim Boetsch
28
Sig strikes landed
18
51
Sig strikes attempted
39
49
Total strikes landed
32
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.9
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
206s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jacare Souza
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
Blue corner
W2
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
22-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—