Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Wilson Reis
Yuta Sasaki
51%
49%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
24-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
22-6-2
W2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Reis: 34 sig / 6 TD ·
Sasaki: 34 sig / 0 TD
Wilson Reis
Yuta Sasaki
20
Sig strikes landed
20
50
Sig strikes attempted
57
47
Total strikes landed
34
2.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
271s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Wilson Reis
24-10
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
Blue corner
W1
Yuta Sasaki
"Ulka"
22-6-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—