Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nik Lentz
Islam Makhachev
26%
74%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
31-12-2
Career record
Δ 28 pp
29-1
W2
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lentz: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Makhachev: 43 sig / 5 TD
Nik Lentz
Islam Makhachev
15
Sig strikes landed
30
40
Sig strikes attempted
50
43
Total strikes landed
55
1.0
Takedowns landed
2.4
3.4
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
291s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
31-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
16 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
Blue corner
W1
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—