Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandre Pantoja
Eric Shelton
87%
13%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pantoja: 37 sig / 1 TD ·
Shelton: 32 sig / 4 TD
Alexandre Pantoja
Eric Shelton
38
Sig strikes landed
31
78
Sig strikes attempted
74
54
Total strikes landed
45
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
174s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Eric Shelton
"Showtime"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26