Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jason Gonzalez
JC Cottrell
38%
62%
Why
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
11-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
17-6
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gonzalez: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Cottrell: 1 sig / 1 TD
Jason Gonzalez
JC Cottrell
29
Sig strikes landed
30
73
Sig strikes attempted
67
42
Total strikes landed
53
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.4
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
100s
Control time
215s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jason Gonzalez
"Nicoya"
11-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
Blue corner
L1
JC Cottrell
17-6
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—