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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Jeremy Kimball

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Jeremy Kimball
60% 40%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
L1
Current streak
5
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rogerio de Lima: 12 sig / 0 TD · Kimball: 5 sig / 0 TD
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Jeremy Kimball
26
Sig strikes landed
21
52
Sig strikes attempted
36
39
Total strikes landed
37
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

"Pezao"
22-11-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
W UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
W UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
Blue corner

Jeremy Kimball

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
26