Prelims1
Bantamweight
Raphael Assuncao vs Aljamain Sterling
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
·Ball Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Aljamain Sterling
30%
70%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
34
Age
Δ 7y
28
28-11
Career record
Δ 9 pp
26-6
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Assuncao: 39 sig / 0 TD ·
Sterling: 52 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Aljamain Sterling
40
Sig strikes landed
46
96
Sig strikes attempted
106
60
Total strikes landed
69
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
86s
Control time
241s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Raphael Assuncao
28-11
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
Blue corner
L1
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—