Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Nate Marquardt
Sam Alvey
48%
52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
38
Age
Δ 7y
31
36-19-2
Career record
Δ 1 pp
34-18-1
W1
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Marquardt: 28 sig / 1 TD ·
Alvey: 36 sig / 0 TD
Nate Marquardt
Sam Alvey
26
Sig strikes landed
30
49
Sig strikes attempted
63
35
Total strikes landed
41
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.4
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
124s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
36-19-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
12 fights · 5-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
W3
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
34-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—