Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Jason Knight
32%
68%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
29
Age
Δ 4y
24
21-16
Career record
Δ 24 pp
21-5
L1
Current streak
W2
15
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Caceres: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Knight: 31 sig / 2 TD
Alex Caceres
Jason Knight
52
Sig strikes landed
58
130
Sig strikes attempted
150
69
Total strikes landed
83
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
68s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
15 fights · 7-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
Blue corner
W2
Jason Knight
"The Kid"
21-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—