Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Francis Ngannou
32%
68%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 6"
83"
38
Age
Δ 8y
30
34-25
Career record
Δ 28 pp
18-3
L3
Current streak
W4
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Arlovski: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Ngannou: 8 sig / 0 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Francis Ngannou
18
Sig strikes landed
28
41
Sig strikes attempted
53
24
Total strikes landed
41
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
76s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
34-25
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
W4
Francis Ngannou
"The Predator"
18-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—