Prelims1
Middleweight
Eric Spicely vs Alessio Di Chirico
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
·Ball Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Eric Spicely
Alessio Di Chirico
50%
50%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
13-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-7
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Spicely: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Di Chirico: 1 sig / 0 TD
Eric Spicely
Alessio Di Chirico
36
Sig strikes landed
31
81
Sig strikes attempted
68
47
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.6
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
145s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Eric Spicely
"Zebrinha"
13-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
Blue corner
W1
Alessio Di Chirico
"Manzo"
14-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—