Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Jorge Masvidal
57%
43%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
37-17
Career record
Δ 1 pp
36-17
W4
Current streak
W2
23
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Cerrone: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Masvidal: 58 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Jorge Masvidal
46
Sig strikes landed
69
100
Sig strikes attempted
128
53
Total strikes landed
76
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
69s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
23 fights · 19-4
Last 5
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
Blue corner
W2
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—