Prelims1
Featherweight
Chas Skelly vs Chris Gruetzemacher
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chas Skelly
Chris Gruetzemacher
70%
30%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
20-3
Career record
Δ 11 pp
16-5
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Skelly: 21 sig / 2 TD ·
Gruetzemacher: 28 sig / 0 TD
Chas Skelly
Chris Gruetzemacher
40
Sig strikes landed
24
94
Sig strikes attempted
50
62
Total strikes landed
51
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.3
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
212s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chas Skelly
"The Scrapper"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Gruetzemacher
"Gritz"
16-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—