Prelims1
Heavyweight
Adam Milstead vs Curtis Blaydes
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adam Milstead
Curtis Blaydes
29%
71%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
9-4
Career record
Δ 8 pp
20-6
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 2
Milstead: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Blaydes: 25 sig / 8 TD
Adam Milstead
Curtis Blaydes
38
Sig strikes landed
44
81
Sig strikes attempted
99
44
Total strikes landed
63
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
47s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Adam Milstead
"The Prototype"
9-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
Blue corner
W1
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
20-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—