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Prelims2 Women's Strawweight

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger vs Nina Nunes

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn ·Footprint Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
Nina Nunes
48% 52%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 0"
64"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
6-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
11-8
L2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Jones-Lybarger: 21 sig / 0 TD · Nunes: 48 sig / 1 TD
Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
Nina Nunes
54
Sig strikes landed
68
140
Sig strikes attempted
140
73
Total strikes landed
91
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
146s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger

6-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
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L UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
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Blue corner
L2

Nina Nunes

11-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
L UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
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