Prelims2
Heavyweight
Walt Harris vs Chase Sherman
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Walt Harris
Chase Sherman
41%
59%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
34
Age
Δ 6y
27
13-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-13
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Harris: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Sherman: 20 sig / 0 TD
Walt Harris
Chase Sherman
43
Sig strikes landed
40
111
Sig strikes attempted
103
56
Total strikes landed
54
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.70
66s
Control time
35s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Walt Harris
"The Big Ticket"
13-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
L1
Chase Sherman
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
16-13
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—