Prelims1
Heavyweight
Aleksei Oleinik vs Viktor Pesta
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aleksei Oleinik
Viktor Pesta
96%
4%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
40
Age
Δ 13y
26
60-18-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
10-5
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Oleinik: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Pesta: 7 sig / 1 TD
Aleksei Oleinik
Viktor Pesta
27
Sig strikes landed
20
53
Sig strikes attempted
44
59
Total strikes landed
31
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
170s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
54%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
60-18-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
Blue corner
L2
Viktor Pesta
10-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—