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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Frankie Saenz vs Augusto Mendes

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn ·Footprint Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Frankie Saenz
Augusto Mendes
67% 33%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
13-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
6-3
L2
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Saenz: 40 sig / 0 TD · Mendes: 42 sig / 4 TD
Frankie Saenz
Augusto Mendes
46
Sig strikes landed
38
95
Sig strikes attempted
94
74
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
219s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Frankie Saenz

13-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
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L UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
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W UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
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W UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
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W UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
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Blue corner
L1

Augusto Mendes

"Tanquinho"
6-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
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