Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Joe Lauzon
Marcin Held
40%
60%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
33
Age
Δ 8y
25
28-17
Career record
Δ 12 pp
23-8
L1
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Lauzon: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Held: 23 sig / 5 TD
Joe Lauzon
Marcin Held
31
Sig strikes landed
34
76
Sig strikes attempted
83
47
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
132s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joe Lauzon
28-17
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
16 fights · 8-8
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Marcin Held
23-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—