Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yair Rodriguez
BJ Penn
93%
7%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
24
Age
Δ 14y
38
22-6
Career record
Δ 30 pp
16-15-2
W5
Current streak
L3
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Rodriguez: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Penn: 4 sig / 0 TD
Yair Rodriguez
BJ Penn
70
Sig strikes landed
34
149
Sig strikes attempted
100
81
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.70
Knockdowns
0.30
86s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Yair Rodriguez
"El Pantera"
22-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
L3
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16-15-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
7 fights · 1-5
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
D
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—