Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Brandon Thatch
Niko Price
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
32
Age
Δ 4y
27
L3
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Thatch: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Price: 6 sig / 1 TD
Brandon Thatch
Niko Price
31
Sig strikes landed
33
66
Sig strikes attempted
64
42
Total strikes landed
50
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
62s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Brandon Thatch
"Rukus"
11-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
Blue corner
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27